The recent hike in gas prices has confused me a great deal. Its not that the price went up dramatically after Katrina -- that makes sense. We lost oil production infrastructure and therefore supply was lower without demand changing much. So prices went up. What confuses me is that they're going down now. Not that I mind, it just seems odd to me. I suppose its possible that the production we lost has been regained, but that seems unlikely since there hasn't been enough time for any large-scale repairs and many of the areas ravaged by Katrina are still on watch if not evacuated because of hurricane Rita. So why are prices going down now? It seems to me that there are only three options:
1. The oil companies raised prices based on public perception rather than reality, and there was not much damage done to production infrastructure. Prices went up because the average person believed that production had been hurt so they were willing to pay more.
2. Oil companies are basing prices on predictions of future production, making it more like the stock market than an actual product. They thought there was going to be a shortage in production so they raised prices. The shortage didn't happen and so prices are going back down.
3. The damage was small and in areas that are not threatened by Rita so production did go down significantly but its already been fixed. This seems like the most reasonable explanation except that right after Katrina hit everyone was talking about the extensive damage done to as much as 16% of our oil production infrastructure. Of course, this is pretty important to our country, so maybe we can get a lot fixed in three weeks. I'm really not sure.
So, are the oil companies playing games with prices, or was the damage real but already fixed because we put so much into it because its vital to us? Someone with more information than me, please explain how this all makes sense.
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
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In my area gas prices are falling, but not anywhere close to prestorm levels yet. I think some of the drop can be related to releasing oil from the strategic national reserve,and getting some from the Swiss- which is exactly what should happen. As to Gulf production, I know a lot of the damage to rigs and such wasn't as bad as expected and they are recovering quickly...
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